By Svante E. Cornell

Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program
Silk Road Paper
December 2025

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Executive Summary:

In October 2025, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) convened a pivotal  summit in Gabala, Azerbaijan, demonstrating its emergence as a significant  geopolitical entity on the Eurasian landscape. During the summit,  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized the OTS's evolution into a  key geopolitical center, while Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev  referred to it as an authoritative structure uniting Turkic populations. This  gathering marks a critical juncture in the organization’s development,  solidifying its influence in a region that links the Mediterranean to Central Asia.

The Gabala summit showcased the OTS's commitment to enhancing  collaboration on various fronts, including security, defense, economic  development, transportation, digitalization, and sustainable energy. A  notable development was the introduction of the "OTS plus" framework,  which aims to strengthen partnerships with non-Turkic states in the vicinity.  This evolution reflects a remarkable transformation for Turkic cooperation,  escalating from modest aspirations to a robust international organization in  a remarkably short period.

The emergence and rapid development of the OTS challenge conventional  frameworks employed by Western bureaucracies to assess the geopolitics of  the region. Typically categorized into rigid geographic divisions,  bureaucracies covering the Middle East, Europe, and Central Asia often  overlook the intricate relationships across these boundaries. Turkic  cooperation ignores these geographic categorizations, as it not only resides within the context of former Soviet republics but also includes Turkey—a  pivotal player straddling both Europe and the Middle East. 

A key element of Turkic Cooperation is the relatively equal standing of its  members. While Türkiye is obviously considerably larger than the other  members, it is telling that the main drivers of Turkic cooperation for many  years were Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan; and that Turkic cooperation really  took off following Uzbekistan’s renewed enthusiasm for the initiative. In  other words, the perception of the OTS as somehow beholden to Turkish  President Erdogan is a red herring.

The ethnolinguistic character of Turkic cooperation has led many observers  to remain skeptical, as it has led to the exclusion of non-Turkic states. Yet on  a practical level, the OTS has displayed an openness to cooperate with  countries like Georgia; more recently, the inclusion of an “OTS plus” format  could create conditions for a more inclusive approach to regional states that  are not majority Turkic.

Given the current geopolitical climate, the rise of the OTS is poised to  reshape power dynamics across a broad expanse of territory, prompting a  reevaluation of strategic frameworks by Western governments and  multilateral organizations. Understanding the implications of the OTS's  evolution will be crucial for policymakers and stakeholders engaged in the  region and beyond.

Svante E. Cornell and Brenda Shaffer
December 4, 2024.

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The United States, Europe, the United Nations and more are promoting a top-down energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which shows no signs of emergence. Under this scenario, Europe and the global market are likely to maintain demand for the energy riches of Central Asia for many decades to come. The gas market of Central Asia itself requires additional gas volumes as well. In order to lower carbon emissions and air pollution and improve public health in Central Asia, the ideal policy in the region  is increased access to natural gas that can replace the widespread burning of biomass and lump coal. Current European policies promote expanding electrification and  is leading to a new look at nuclear energy. Accordingly, the uranium deposits of Central Asia have become of high commercial and geopolitical interest.