The Central Asia Caucasus Institute recently convened a timely forum on the future of regional cooperation in Central Asia. The discussion featured Dr. Sanat Kushkumbayev, Ambassador Javlon Vakhabov, and Professor S. Frederick Starr, moderated by Dr. Svante Cornell. The session built on new CACI publications and looked ahead to the upcoming Central Asia Summit in Tashkent, with an emphasis on lessons from the past, the progress of recent years, and the path forward for integration.

Both Dr. Kushkumbayev and Amd. Vakhabov have recently published within CACI. To read Dr. Kushkumbayev’s work on the failed Central Asian Union of 1990-2005, click here. To read Amd. Vakhabov’s work on opportunities and challenges for Central Asia, please click here. 

Watch the full discussion below or on YouTube.

Lessons from Earlier Attempts

Dr. Kushkumbayev highlighted the limitations of past integration projects in the 1990s and early 2000s. Efforts such as the Central Asian Union were hampered by divergent economic models, lack of political will, unresolved border disputes, and external pressures. Many initiatives remained confined to declarations without implementation. He emphasized that while early attempts faltered, they provide critical lessons for today, including the importance of practical outcomes over symbolism and the risks of rivalry between national leaders.

A Pragmatic Turn in Regionalism

According to Dr. Kushkumbayev, Central Asia is now entering what some call “integration 2.0.” Unlike earlier experiments, the new phase is rooted in pragmatism rather than ideology. Cooperation is being pursued through flexible consultative meetings and concrete projects in trade, transport, and energy. This shift marks a more cautious but sustainable approach, focused on building trust and delivering tangible benefits for citizens rather than constructing supranational bodies.

Progress and New Institutions

Ambassador Vakhabov underscored how recent years have brought real breakthroughs, including the settlement of sensitive border issues and advances in water and energy cooperation. Initiatives like the Treaty of Friendship and the adoption of a long-term regional cooperation concept signal deeper institutionalization. Under Uzbekistan’s chairmanship, priorities include connectivity, tourism development, energy collaboration, and people-to-people ties. While challenges remain—such as water scarcity, uneven infrastructure, and differing external alignments—the region is moving from problem-solving to collective action.

Reactions and Next Steps

Professor Starr praised the shift from coordination to consolidation, calling it a “dramatic change” after three decades of independence. He urged Central Asia to strengthen its institutions further, warning that without them the region risks “driving with the handbrake on.” He also raised strategic questions about expanding the group to a C6 by formally including Azerbaijan and about leading careful engagement with Afghanistan. Dr. Cornell added that while ad hoc cooperation has been effective so far, lasting progress will require stronger institutions that can shield regional initiatives from domestic politics and external pressures.

By Niklas Swanström

December 2011

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