IMF Economic Outlook Caucasus Central Asia

CACI FORUM

IMF Economic Outlook on Caucasus and Central Asia: Structural Transformation Needed

Wednesday, 30 November 2016, from 5 to 7 p.m.

Light reception with Georgian wines at 5; main program at 5:30 

A decline in commodity prices and slowing in key economic partners such as Russia and China, had a significant impact on the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Regional growth is projected to average only 1.3 percent this year, representing a dramatic decrease in economic activity compared with growth rates of the early 2000s. According to the IMF, next year the region's economies should turn a corner, with average growth reaching 2.6 percent. Medium-term prospects remain weak, however, with growth projected to average 4 percent in the 2018–21 period, half that in 2000–14.

These and other important economic topics will be discussed as part of the Regional Economic Outlook Report, the latest IMF release on the Caucasus and Central Asia. The special focus of this year's presentation is Kazakhstan: the discussion will review this country's macroeconomic and structural policy response to shocks that began in late 2014, and will examine prospects for the medium term.

Speakers:

Juha Kahkonen, Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia Dept., IMF

Mark Horton, Mission Chief, Kazakhstan, IMF

Moderator:

Mamuka Tsereteli, Research Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

 
 
Location: 

Rome Building Auditorium
SAIS - Johns Hopkins University
1619 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC  20036

Click here to RSVP and register

Published in Forums & Events
Tuesday, 15 November 2016 00:00

Kazakhstan 2041: the Next Twenty-Five Years

Svante E. Cornell, Johan Engvall and S. Frederick Starr

November, 2016, pp. 66

Read full textkz2041

rums-logoCACI FORUM

Heart of Asia Business Partnerships,
from the Black Sea to Mongolia

 

Tuesday, 1 Nov. 2016, from 5 to 7 p.m.
(reception with Georgian wine at 5 p.m.; program at 5:30)

 

In this CACI forum, eleven participants from the Fall 2016 Rumsfeld Fellowship program, representing eight countries, will discuss INNOVATIVE EMERGING regional business partnerships in Central Asia and the Caucasus.  
 

A video recording of this forum can now be viewed on the SAIS Events YouTube channel.

Moderated by  S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

 

Location: 

Rome Building Auditorium
SAIS - Johns Hopkins University
1619 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20036

Click here to RSVP and register

 

Click here to sign up for CACI Forum mailing list

Visit CACI on Facebook

Published in Forums & Events
Thursday, 03 November 2016 17:00

Afghanistan: What Does the Future Hold?

rums-logoCACI FORUM

Afghanistan: What Does the Future Hold?

 

Thursday, 3 Nov. 2016, from 5 to 7 p.m. 

(reception with Georgian wine at 5 p.m.; main program at 5:30)

 

This CACI forum presents three of its Afghan colleagues, all of them recipients of the Rumsfeld Fellowship. With one a senior official in President Ghani's office, the second the head of Afghanistan's largest TV network, and the third from the Afghan private sector with military background, they are well positioned to speak about their country's future, its security, its politics, and the views of its citizens.  

Speakers:

Mr. Zafar Hashemi
Deputy Spokesman to the President of Afghanistan
 
Mr. Lotfullah Najafizada
Award-winning journalist and Director of TOLOnews (Afghanistan’s top 24/7 news and current affairs television channel)
 
Mr. Sami Sadat
CEO, Blue Sea Logistics Company
Military and Security Expert
 
Moderated by  S. Frederick Starr, Chairman, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

 

A video recording of this forum can now be viewed on the SAIS Events YouTube channel.

Location: 

Rome Building Auditorium
SAIS - Johns Hopkins University
1619 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20036

Click here to RSVP and register

 

Click here to sign up for CACI Forum mailing list

Visit CACI on Facebook

Published in Forums & Events

safoyev1The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and 
the Embassy of the Republic of Uzbekistan invite you:

Update from Tashkent: A Conversation
with Senator Sodiq Safoev, Сhairman of the Committee for Foreign Relations of the Senate of the Oliy Majlis of the Republic of Uzbekistan

 

Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016, from noon to 1:30 p.m. 

 

Important developments are under way in Uzbekistan. With national elections impending on December 4, and fresh initiatives already taken in areas as diverse as policy reforms, business, and international relations, Uzbekistan has entered a vital new phase.

Senator Safoev served as Ambassador to Washington from 1996 to 2001, where he was warmly received, and subsequently was Minister of Foreign Affairs and Rector of the University of World Economy and Diplomacy in Tashkent. He was elected to the Senate in 2010. Additionally, he worked as the First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs; as Special Representative of the President of Uzbekistan in Afghanistan; as Ambassador of Uzbekistan to Germany; and as Chief Consultant and Head of the Department of International Economic Relations under the presidential administration.

Moderated by Svante Cornell, Director, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute

Lunch (Uzbek cuisine) will be served.

 

Please note the special location and time of this event – noon on Thursday, 20 October: 
 
The Embassy of the Republic of Uzbekistan
1746 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC  20036

Registration is REQUIRED for this event:  


Click here to RSVP and register

 

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Published in Forums & Events

isdp

AFPC-Full-Logo

 

News

  • New Article Series on Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus
    Wednesday, 24 November 2021 11:53

    Eurasia

  • CACI Initiative on Religion and the Secular State in Central Asia and the Caucasus
    Sunday, 24 January 2021 13:53

    In 2016, the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program launched an initiative on documenting the interrelationship of religion and the secular state in the region. This initiative departed from the fact that little systematic reserch had been undertaken on the subject thus far. While there was and remains much commentary and criticism of religious policy in the region, there was no comprehensive analysis available on the interrelationship of religion and the state in any regional state, let alone the region as a whole. The result of this initiative has been the publication of six Silk Road Papers studying the matter in regional states, with more to come. In addition, work is ongoing on a volume putting the regional situation in the context of the Muslim world as a whole.

     

    Case Studies

    Each study below can be freely downloaded in PDF format.

    az-formula-SRSP

    Azerbaijan's Formula: Secular Governance and Civil Nationhood
    By Svante E. Cornell, Halil Karaveli, and Boris Ajeganov
    November 2016   




    2018-04-Kazakhstan-SecularismReligion and the Secular State in Kazakhstan
    By Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr and Julian Tucker
    April 2018

     

     

     

    1806-UZ-coverReligion and the Secular State in Uzbekistan
    Svante E. Cornell and Jacob Zenn
    June 2018

     

     

     

    2006-Engvall-coverReligion and the Secular State in Kyrgyzstan
    Johan Engvall
    June 2020

     Event video online

     

    2006-Clement-coverReligion and the Secular State in Turkmenistan
    Victoria Clement
    June 2020

    Event video online

     

     

     

    Articles and Analyses

    Svante E. Cornell, "Religion and the State in Central Asia," in Ilan Berman, ed., Wars of Ideas: Theology, Interpretation and Power in the Muslim World, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2021.

    Svante E. Cornell, "Central Asia: Where Did Islamic Radicalization Go?" in Religion, Conflict and Stability in the Former Soviet Union, eds. Katya Migacheva and Bryan Frederick, Arlington, VA: RAND Corporation, 2018.

  • Basic Principles for the Rehabilitation of Azerbaijan's Post-Conflict Territories
    Wednesday, 07 October 2020 09:01

    Rehab-coverIn 2010, the CACI-SRSP Joint Center cooperated with Eldar Ismailov and Nazim Muzaffarli of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the Caucasus to produce a study of the methodology and process for the rehabilitation of the occupied territories in Azerbaijan. The study was written in the hope that it would prove useful in the aftermath of a negotiated solution to the conflict.

    Such a resolution nevertheless did not materialize. At present, however, it appears that some of these territories are returning to Azerbaijani control as a result of the military conflict that began in late September, 2020. While it is regrettable that this did not come to pass as a result of negotiations, it is clear that the challenge of rehabilitating territories is as pressing today as it would be in the event of a peaceful resolution - if not more, given the likelihood that such a solution would have included a time-table and provided the Government of Azerbaijan and international institutions time for planning.

    It is clear that the study is a product of a different time, as much has changed since 2010. We fully expcect many updates and revisions to be needed should the recommendations in this study be implemented today. That said, we believe the methodoloy of the study and its conclusions remain relevant and would therefore like to call attention to this important study, published in English, Russian and Azerbaijani versions.

    Click to download:

    BASIC PRINCIPLES FOR THE REHABILITATION OF AZERBAIJAN’S POST-CONFLICT TERRITORIES

     

  • Resources on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict
    Monday, 05 October 2020 08:19

    Resources on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

     

    The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program have a long track record of covering the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict. This page presents the key resources and most recent analysis. 

    In 2017, Palgrave published the first book-length study of the International Politics of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, edited by Svante Cornell. The book concluded by arguing that if international efforts to resolve the conflict are not stepped up, “the ‘four-day’ war of April 2016 will appear a minor skirmish compared to what is sure to follow”.

    In 2015, CACI & SRSP released the Silk Road Paper  “A Western Strategy for the South Caucasus”, which included a full page of recommendations for the U.S. and EU on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. These are reproduced below:

    ------------------

    Develop a substantial and prolonged Western initiative on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

    o This initiative must be led by the United States, in close consultation with its European partners – primarily the EU Commission and External Action Service, and France. Barring some process to reinvigorate the Minsk Process – a doubtful proposition given Western-Russian relations in the foreseeable future – Western leaders must be prepared to bypass that process, utilizing it where appropriate but focusing their initiative on developing direct negotiations between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders.

    o The U.S. and its European partners must abandon the practice of relying solely on the Minsk Group co-chairs to resolve the Karabakh conflict. These diplomats have contributed greatly to formulating a workable framework agreement. However, strong and sustained U.S. Government leadership from the top level is needed to complement or, failing that, to replace the Minsk Process. In practice, this means the expressed support of the President, involvement of the White House, and leadership manifested in the appointment of a distinguished citizen as Special Envoy for the resolution of the conflict.

    o The EU must take a more clearly defined and substantial role in the process, by integrating to the highest degree possible the French co-chairmanship of the Minsk Group with EU institutions. While Washington will need to take the lead on the political side, it would be natural for the EU to take the lead in organizing an international development program for the currently occupied Azerbaijani provinces and Karabakh itself. That effort, too, would need to be led by a senior EU figure.

    --------------------------------------------

    In 2011, CACI & SRSP helped launch an extensive study of the steps needed for the post-conflict rehabilitation of Azerbaijan's occupied territories, in cooperation with Eldar Ismailov and Nazim Muzaffarli of the Institute for Strategic Studies of the Caucasus. The monograph "Basic Principles for the Rehabilitation of Azerbaijan's Post-Conflict Territories" can be accessed here

     

    More background resources:

    Svante E. Cornell, "Can America Stop a Wider War Between Armenia and Azerbaijan?", The National Interest, October 2020

    Brenda Shaffer and Svante E. Cornell, Occupied Elsewhere: Selective Policies on Occupation, Foundation For Defense of Democracies, January 2020. 

    Brenda Shaffer and Svante E. Cornell, "The U.S. Needs to Declare War on Proxies", Foreign Policy, January 27, 2020

    Svante E. Cornell, “The Raucous Caucasus”, American Interest, May 2017

    Svante E. Cornell, Small Nations and Great Powers: A Study of Ethnopolitical Conflict in the Caucasus, RoutledgeCurzon, 2001.

    Svante E. Cornell, The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Uppsala University, 1999

    More recent analysis:

    Turkey Seeks to Counter Russia in the Black Sea-Caucasus Region,” Turkey Analyst, 10/5/20, Emil Avdaliani

    Turkey’s Commitment to Azerbaijan’s Defense Shows the Limits of Ankara’s Tilt to Moscow,” Turkey Analyst, 9/25/20, Turan Suleymanov & Bahruz Babayev

     “Cross-Border Escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 9/25/20, Natalia Konarzewska

    Russia and Turkey: Behind the Armenia-Azerbaijan Clashes?”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 8/31/20, Avinoam Idan

    Armenia and the U.S.: Time for New Thinking?”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 10/2/19, Eduard Abrahamyan.

    Why Washington Must Re-Engage the CaucasusCentral Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 7/8/19, Stephen Blank

    Azerbaijan’s Defense Industry Reform”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 5/7/19, Tamerlan Vahabov.

    Military Procurements on Armenia's and Azerbaijan's Defense Agendas”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3/27/19, Ilgar Gurbanov

    Armenia's New Government Struggles with Domestic and External Opposition,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3/20/19, Armen Grigorian.

    Bolton's Caucasian Tour and Russia's Reaction”, Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 12/17/18, Eduard Abrahamyan.