Published in Forums & Events

CACI Forum

What Do Moscow's Proposed Security Arrangements Mean for Central Asia and the Caucasus?

You may view a recorded version of this CACI Forum below or on the SAIS events YouTube channel.

Moscow is aggressively demanding that the West accept a new security architecture that would take account the new "realities on the ground" created by Russia's de-facto occupation of two Georgian regions, annexation of Crimea, and attempt to create new separatist statelet in Eastern Ukraine.  Our speakers will examine these demands against the death of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty and the dysfunctionality of OSCE and other elements of security umbrella that were supposed to maintain peace in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe.  Speakers will also consider the West's possible responses.
 
Countries in Central Asia, Caucasus and Mongolia are at the crossroads of choosing their destinies. What will be the future of the region?  What will be the role of Eurasian Economic Union?  Will China’s role in Central Asia grow?
 
CACI Rumsfeld fellows will discuss possible scenarios of development in the Eurasia region, with relevant political, social, and economic implications, based on their personal experience in public sector and business.    

Published in Forums & Events

CACI FORUM

Presidential Elections in Kazakhstan

Tuesday, 5 May 2015, from 5 to 7 PM

You may view a recorded version of this CACI Forum below or on the SAIS events YouTube channel.

Kazakhstan conducted snap elections for the presidency on 26 April, 2015, with President Nazarbayev winning by 97% of vote.  While critics question whether opposition candidates were given adequate time to mobilize their campaigns, defenders argue that this vote of confidence in the existing leadership of the country is reassuring to the country's international partners and investors at a moment of considerable stress throughout the region. Speakers will provide first-hand insights on the election and broader perspectives. 

Published in Forums & Events

CACI FORUM

Current Dynamics in Eurasia Region: Political and Economic Implications

Monday, 4 May 2015, from 5 to 7 PM

You may view a recorded version of this CACI Forum below or on the SAIS events YouTube channel.

Recent developments in the Eurasia region demonstrate that regional superpowers stepped into a vigorous race for shaping a geopolitical picture that suits their own political interests and security considerations. Russia has formed a union of allies that helps to destabilize countries that did not pledge their loyalty to Russia:  the Eurasia Economic Union, established by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, will extend its borders as far as Armenia and Kyrgyz Republic (pending ratification in May).  Thus Russia uses political and military leverage to form a comfort zone in the Caucasus and Central Asia; meanwhile, China uses trade and massive infrastructure projects financing to increase influence in Central Asia and  Mongolia.  At the same time, the European Union has been cooperating with Ukraine and republics in the Caucasus to sign EU association agreements on free trade within the European Union.
 
Countries in Central Asia, Caucasus and Mongolia are at the crossroads of choosing their destinies. What will be the future of the region?  What will be the role of Eurasian Economic Union?  Will China’s role in Central Asia grow?
 
CACI Rumsfeld fellows will discuss possible scenarios of development in the Eurasia region, with relevant political, social, and economic implications, based on their personal experience in public sector and business.    

Published in Forums & Events

CACI FORUM

Latvian Presidency and EU Policy Towards Central Asia

Tuesday, 28 April 2015, from 5 to 7 PM
(reception at 5 p.m., followed by main program at 5:30)

When Latvia assumed the EU presidency in January, 2015, it immediately identified Central Asia as a main focus of its presidency. It moved quickly to organize several high profile events and activities aimed at greater political and economic engagement of the EU with the region, and has more yet to come.  

Our speakers will discuss recent initiatives by the EU to enhance political and security contacts and greater trade between European countries and the states of Central Asia, and the implications of this policy for the region and also for the United States. 

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News

  • Central Asia Diplomats Call for Closer Ties With US
    Monday, 26 June 2023 00:00

    REPRINTED with permission from Voice of America News
    By Navbahor Imamova

    WASHINGTON -- U.S.-based diplomats from Central Asia, a region long dominated by Russia and more recently China, say they are eager for more engagement with the United States.

    Many American foreign policy experts agree that a more robust relationship would be mutually beneficial, though U.S.-based nongovernmental organizations express deep concerns about human rights and authoritarian rule in the five countries: Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.

    Michael Delaney, a former U.S. trade official, argued in favor of greater engagement this week at a webinar organized by the American-Uzbekistan Chamber of Commerce.

    He noted that three of the five republics are World Trade Organization members and the other two are in the accession process — a goal actively encouraged by the U.S. government.

    "I've always believed that this is a geographically disadvantaged area. There are relatively small national economies," he said. But, he said, collectively the region represents a potentially more connected market, about 80 million people.

    Key issues

    In this virtual gathering, all five Central Asian ambassadors to Washington expressed eagerness to work on issues the U.S. has long pushed for, such as water and energy sustainability, security cooperation, environmental protection and climate, and connectivity.

    Kazakhstan's Ambassador Yerzhan Ashikbayev said that despite all factors, the United States does not want to leave the field to China, its global competitor, which actively invests in the region.

    "Recent visit by 20 companies to Kazakhstan as a part of certified U.S. trade mission, including technology giants like Apple, Microsoft, Google, but also other partners like Boeing, have shown a growing interest," Ashikbayev said.

    The Kazakh diplomat described a "synergy" of economies and diplomatic efforts. All Central Asian states are committed to dialogue, trade and multilateralism, he said. "As we are witnessing the return of the divisive bloc mentalities almost unseen for 30 years, it's in our best interest to prevent Central Asia from turning into another battleground of global powers."

    During his first tour of Central Asia earlier this year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, meeting separately with the foreign ministers of all five countries.

    That was deeply appreciated, said Meret Orazov, Turkmenistan's longtime ambassador, who also praised the regular bilateral consultations the U.S. holds with these countries.

    Uzbek Ambassador Furqat Sidiqov sees the U.S. as an important partner, with "long-standing friendship and cooperation which have only grown stronger over the years."

    "The U.S. has played a significant role in promoting dialogue and cooperation among the Central Asian nations through initiatives such as the C5+1," he said, referring to a diplomatic platform comprising Washington and the region's five governments.

    "This is where we address common concerns and enhance integration," said Sidiqov. "We encourage the U.S. to bolster this mechanism."

    Tashkent regards Afghanistan as key to Central Asia's development, potentially linking the landlocked region to the markets and seaports of South Asia. Sidiqov said his country counts on American assistance.

    'Possibility of positive change'

    Fred Starr, chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute in Washington, ardently advocates for the U.S. to adopt closer political, economic and people-to-people ties with the region.

    In a recent paper, he wrote that among dozens of officials, diplomats, entrepreneurs, experts, journalists and civil society leaders interviewed in Central Asia, "even those most critical of American positions saw the possibility of positive change and … all acknowledged that the need for change is on both sides, theirs as well as ours."

    This is the only region that doesn't have its own organization, said Starr, arguing that the U.S. could support this effort. "We have not done so, probably because we think that this is somehow going to interfere with their relations with their other big neighbors, the north and east, but it's not going to. It's not against anyone."

    "Easy to do, low cost, very big outcome," he added, also underscoring that "there is a feeling the U.S. should be much more attentive to security."

    "Japan, the European Union, Russia, China, their top leaders have visited. … No U.S. president has ever set foot in Central Asia," he said. He added that regional officials are left to wonder, "Are we so insignificant that they can't take the time to visit?"

    Starr urges U.S. President Joe Biden to convene the C5+1 in New York during the 78th session of the U.N. General Assembly in September. "This would not be a big drain on the president's time, but it would be symbolically extremely important," he said. "All of them want this to happen."

    Read at VOA News

  • Read CACI Chairman S. Frederick Starr's recent interview on the resurgence of Imperial Russia with The American Purpose
    Tuesday, 23 May 2023 00:00

    Why Russians Support the War: Jeffrey Gedmin interviews S. Frederick Starr on the resurgence of Imperial Russia.

    The American Purpose, May 23, 2023

    Jeffrey Gedmin: Do we have a Putin problem or a Russia problem today?

    S. Frederick Starr: We have a Putin problem because we have a Russia problem. Bluntly, the mass of Russians are passive and easily manipulated—down to the moment they aren’t. Two decades ago they made a deal with Vladimir Putin, as they have done with many of his predecessors: You give us a basic income, prospects for a better future, and a country we can take pride in, and we will give you a free hand. This is the same formula for autocracy that prevailed in Soviet times, and, before that, under the czars. The difference is that this time Russia’s leader—Putin—and his entourage have adopted a bizarre and dangerous ideology, “Eurasianism,” that empowers them to expand Russian power at will over the entire former territory of the USSR and even beyond. It is a grand and awful vision that puffs up ruler and ruled alike.

    What do most Russians think of this deal? It leaves them bereft of the normal rights of citizenship but free from its day-to-day responsibilities. So instead of debating, voting, and demonstrating, Russians store up their frustrations and then release them in elemental, often destructive, and usually futile acts of rebellion. This “Russia problem” leaves the prospect of change in Russia today in the hands of alienated members of Putin’s immediate entourage, many of whom share his vision of Russia’s destiny and are anyway subject to Putin’s ample levers for control. Thus, our “Putin problem” arises from our “Russia problem.”

    Click to continue reading...

  • CACI director Svante Cornell's interviewed on the 'John Batchelor Show' podcast regarding Turkey's 2023 presidential election
    Friday, 19 May 2023 00:00

    Listen to CACI director Svante Cornell's recent interview on the 'John Batchelor Show' podcast regarding Turkey's 2023 presidential election. Click here!

  • New Article Series on Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus
    Wednesday, 24 November 2021 11:53

    Eurasia